House alert results on 1h, 4h and D
Since 22 Oct 2026, 8 of 14 house alerts have settled firings on their headline timeframe, 53 on 1h in total. None carries a tag yet: the first tag needs 30 settled firings spread over at least 14 days. The highest range bottom is Trend accelerates — short at 51 % (19 settled on 1h). Daily (D) firings settle over a 20-day window, so D numbers lag 1h and 4h. As of 25 Oct 2026, 15:07 UTC.
Win = take profit hit, or in profit at window end. Ranges are 95 % (Wilson). Episodes count overlapping firings of one alert on one market once. Tags describe the headline timeframe only. How alerts are graded →
Reversal — long
LONGCollecting · 21 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Turning up while price is in Discount or High Discount of the 4H 200-bar range and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average.
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 21 | 33% 17–55 % | 14 | 36% 16–61 % | 3 · 4 · 7 · 7 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 21
- Firing win rate
- 33% 17–55 %
- Episodes
- 14 · 36% 16–61 %
- Outcomes
- 3 · 4 · 7 · 7
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Reversal — short
SHORTCollecting · 1 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Turning down while price is in Premium or High Premium of the 4H 200-bar range and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average.
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 1 | 0% 0–79 % | 0 | — | 0 · 0 · 0 · 1 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 1
- Firing win rate
- 0% 0–79 %
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- 0 · 0 · 0 · 1
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Reversal — long + ProvenAlpha agrees
LONGCollecting · 1 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Turning up while price is in Discount or High Discount of the 4H 200-bar range and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average. Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans long (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 1 | 0% 0–79 % | 1 | 0% 0–79 % | 0 · 0 · 1 · 0 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 1
- Firing win rate
- 0% 0–79 %
- Episodes
- 1 · 0% 0–79 %
- Outcomes
- 0 · 0 · 1 · 0
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Reversal — short + ProvenAlpha agrees
SHORTCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Turning down while price is in Premium or High Premium of the 4H 200-bar range and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average. Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans short (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Trend accelerates — long
LONGCollecting · 1 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Pumping while price is not in High Premium (4H, 200 bars) and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average.
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 1 | 0% 0–79 % | 1 | 0% 0–79 % | 0 · 0 · 1 · 0 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 1
- Firing win rate
- 0% 0–79 %
- Episodes
- 1 · 0% 0–79 %
- Outcomes
- 0 · 0 · 1 · 0
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Trend accelerates — short
SHORTCollecting · 19 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Falling while price is not in High Discount (4H, 200 bars) and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average.
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 19 | 74% 51–88 % | 14 | 79% 52–92 % | 9 · 5 · 3 · 2 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 19
- Firing win rate
- 74% 51–88 %
- Episodes
- 14 · 79% 52–92 %
- Outcomes
- 9 · 5 · 3 · 2
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Trend accelerates — long + ProvenAlpha agrees
LONGCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Pumping while price is not in High Premium (4H, 200 bars) and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average. Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans long (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Trend accelerates — short + ProvenAlpha agrees
SHORTCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when the MACD scenario becomes Falling while price is not in High Discount (4H, 200 bars) and 1H volume is above its 20-bar average. Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans short (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Pullback — long
LONGCollecting · 2 of 30 · 1hFires when price enters a grade A or B demand zone on D, 4H or 1H while the timeframes read + + + + − (D · 4H · 1H · 15m · 5m) and price is not in High Premium (4H, 200 bars).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 2 | 0% 0–66 % | 2 | 0% 0–66 % | 0 · 0 · 2 · 0 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 2
- Firing win rate
- 0% 0–66 %
- Episodes
- 2 · 0% 0–66 %
- Outcomes
- 0 · 0 · 2 · 0
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Pullback — short
SHORTCollecting · 5 of 30 · 1hFires when price enters a grade A or B supply zone on D, 4H or 1H while the timeframes read − − − − + (D · 4H · 1H · 15m · 5m) and price is not in High Discount (4H, 200 bars).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 5 | 60% 23–88 % | 5 | 60% 23–88 % | 3 · 0 · 0 · 2 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 5
- Firing win rate
- 60% 23–88 %
- Episodes
- 5 · 60% 23–88 %
- Outcomes
- 3 · 0 · 0 · 2
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Pullback — long + ProvenAlpha agrees
LONGCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when price enters a grade A or B demand zone on D, 4H or 1H while the timeframes read + + + + − (D · 4H · 1H · 15m · 5m) and price is not in High Premium (4H, 200 bars). Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans long (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Pullback — short + ProvenAlpha agrees
SHORTCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when price enters a grade A or B supply zone on D, 4H or 1H while the timeframes read − − − − + (D · 4H · 1H · 15m · 5m) and price is not in High Discount (4H, 200 bars). Only when ProvenAlpha's consensus also leans short (confidence ≥ 70, ≥ 3 mentions).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Consensus — long
LONGCollecting · 3 of 30 · 1hFires when ProvenAlpha's analyst consensus turns long with confidence ≥ 70 and ≥ 3 mentions while price is in Discount or High Discount (4H, 200 bars).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 3 | 0% 0–56 % | 3 | 0% 0–56 % | 0 · 0 · 3 · 0 | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 3
- Firing win rate
- 0% 0–56 %
- Episodes
- 3 · 0% 0–56 %
- Outcomes
- 0 · 0 · 3 · 0
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Consensus — short
SHORTCollecting · 0 of 30 · 1hFires when ProvenAlpha's analyst consensus turns short with confidence ≥ 70 and ≥ 3 mentions while price is in Premium or High Premium (4H, 200 bars).
| TF | Settled | Firing win rate · 95 % range | Episodes | Episode win rate · range | TP · +end · SL · −end | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ★ | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | Collecting (headline) |
| 4h | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on 4h |
| D | 0 | — | 0 | — | no settled firings | no tag on D |
- 1h ★Collecting (headline)
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- 4hno tag on 4h
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
- Dno tag on D
- Settled
- 0
- Firing win rate
- —
- Episodes
- 0 · —
- Outcomes
- no settled firings
Information, not advice. Past alerts don't predict the next one.