What the crowd is pricing, scored against 38,478 resolved markets.
Live up-or-down odds on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and BNB from Polymarket, across the 15-minute, hourly and 4-hour windows — each one placed next to how accurately that horizon has priced reality in the past, so you can see which numbers to take at face value and which to question. Free, refreshed through the day.
We poll Polymarket's up-or-down series for the five majors, snapshot price, volume and liquidity as each window runs, and record what actually happened when it settled. That settled history is the whole point: for every horizon we measure the average gap between what the market priced and what came true, and publish it next to the live board. A 70% price on a horizon that has been near-flawless means something different from a 70% price on the loosest window we track. Markets that have barely traded are tagged thin, because a price nobody paid for is a tell, not a reading.
The live board →How we score it →FAQ →What the analysts are calling: ProvenAlpha →
Odds are Polymarket's, not ours; this is not advice.
Every open market is sitting within a couple of points of a coin flip — the crowd is not taking a side.
Today's read · 05:11 UTC
| Asset | 15 minutesPriced tight — trust it | 1 hourMostly reliable | 4 hoursLoosest — look here |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCBitcoin |
50.5%
0.0
|
50.5%
0.0
|
48.5%
0.0
|
| ETHEthereum |
50.5%
0.0
|
49.5%
0.0
|
45.0%
0.0
|
| SOLSolana |
50.0%
0.0
|
50.5%
0.0
|
47.5%
0.0
|
| XRPXRP |
49.5%
0.0
|
51.5%
0.0
|
41.5%
0.0
|
| BNBBNB |
49.5%
0.0
|
50.0%
0.0
|
42.5%
0.0
|
Hover a column header to see what it measures. A market tagged thin has barely traded — read it as a tell, not a price.
Methodology and disclaimer
Methodology. We poll Polymarket's up-or-down series for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and BNB across 15-minute, hourly and 4-hour horizons, snapshotting price, volume and liquidity, and record each window's outcome on settlement. "Change" is measured against the first price captured after the window opened. Horizon trust scores are the sample-weighted mean absolute gap between what the market priced and what actually happened, across 38,478 resolved markets, excluding prices below 2% or above 98%.
Disclaimer. ProvenAlpha reports measurements of publicly available prediction-market data. Nothing on this page is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any asset or contract. Past pricing accuracy does not predict future accuracy. Prediction markets and crypto both carry substantial risk of total loss. Do your own research.
What moved most, where a move can still mean something.
Ranked by the size of the move, weighted by how loosely that horizon has historically been priced.
Nothing is moving enough to flag
Every open market is sitting close to where its window opened. Quiet boards are common, and there is nothing to act on here.
How much each horizon has been worth trusting.
The average gap between what the crowd priced and what actually happened, measured on 38,478 resolved markets. Lower is tighter.
Near-flawless. When it says 70%, it happens ~70% of the time. Take the price at face value — there is no edge here.
Still good, noticeably looser. Extreme readings are usually right, but the middle of the range drifts.
The loosest market we track, on only 819 samples. If mispricing exists anywhere on this board, it is most likely here.
Daily markets have not settled recently, so we show nothing rather than a stale price with no track record behind it.
How the last 24 hours actually closed.
Share of settled windows that closed up, per asset, over the last day. Read it against the board: agreement means the crowd is extending a trend, disagreement means it is calling a turn.
| Asset | Closed up | Windows | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCBitcoin |
43.3%
|
120 | leaned down |
| ETHEthereum |
45.0%
|
120 | leaned down |
| SOLSolana |
43.3%
|
120 | leaned down |
| XRPXRP |
41.7%
|
120 | strongest |
| BNBBNB |
55.0%
|
120 | leaned up |
One row per asset with settled windows in the period; an asset with nothing settled is left out rather than shown at 50%.
Put the odds next to the structure.
The tools and guides that turn a price into a plan.
Know What the Crowd Is Calling Before You Trade: Crypto, Gold and FX in One Table
Read what crypto Telegram and X analysts are calling in five minutes: community bias, per-pair consensus and the crowd's levels, for crypto, gold and FX.
Read the guide →ProvenAlpha
What public crypto analysts are calling today — bias, consensus and the levels they watch.
Open the tool →Opportunity Screener
Six-timeframe alignment and situation scores for every pair — the structure behind the odds.
Open the tool →ZoneHunter Live
Order blocks and fair value gaps on a live chart, with a trade plan per zone.
Open the tool →Everything you need to know before you read the board.
What is this page?
Where do the odds come from?
What does a probability actually mean here?
How do you score which horizon to trust?
Why does the loosest horizon matter most?
What does the "thin" tag mean?
What makes a market "worth a look"?
Why is there no daily horizon?
What is the 24-hour section for?
Is a lopsided price a trade?
How does this relate to ProvenAlpha?
Want the desk's own daily read, with the trades it takes?
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