ProvenAlpha · Prediction Markets

What the crowd is pricing, scored against 22,193 resolved markets.

Live up-or-down odds on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and BNB from Polymarket, across the 15-minute, hourly and 4-hour windows — each one placed next to how accurately that horizon has priced reality in the past, so you can see which numbers to take at face value and which to question. Free, refreshed through the day.

Read more about how it works

We poll Polymarket's up-or-down series for the five majors, snapshot price, volume and liquidity as each window runs, and record what actually happened when it settled. That settled history is the whole point: for every horizon we measure the average gap between what the market priced and what came true, and publish it next to the live board. A 70% price on a horizon that has been near-flawless means something different from a 70% price on the loosest window we track. Markets that have barely traded are tagged thin, because a price nobody paid for is a tell, not a reading.

The live board · How we score it · FAQ · What the analysts are calling: ProvenAlpha →

Live Updated 03:01 UTC · next close –:–

Odds are Polymarket's, not ours; this is not advice.

Crowd stance RISK-ON 2 of 5 moving markets have traded under $250 — size your confidence accordingly.

Ethereum has moved 33.5 points up on the 4 hours window, to 84.5%. 0 of 5 moving markets are bid down.

Today's read · 03:01 UTC

Probability the asset closes up · change since the window opened · worth a look

Asset	15 minutesPriced tight — trust it	1 hourMostly reliable	4 hoursLoosest — look here
BTCBitcoin	46.5% 0.0 leans down $215thin	46.5% 0.0 leans down $102thin	73.5% +24.5 leans up $6,571
ETHEthereum	48.5% 0.0 coin flip $5thin	48.5% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	84.5% +33.5 leans up $1,071
SOLSolana	48.0% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	48.5% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	83.5% +32.5 leans up $199thin
XRPXRP	54.0% 0.0 leans up $0thin	48.5% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	79.0% +29.0 leans up $260
BNBBNB	49.5% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	50.0% 0.0 coin flip $0thin	82.5% +32.5 leans up $16thin

Hover a column header to see what it measures. A market tagged thin has barely traded — read it as a tell, not a price.

Methodology and disclaimer

Methodology. We poll Polymarket's up-or-down series for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and BNB across 15-minute, hourly and 4-hour horizons, snapshotting price, volume and liquidity, and record each window's outcome on settlement. "Change" is measured against the first price captured after the window opened. Horizon trust scores are the sample-weighted mean absolute gap between what the market priced and what actually happened, across 22,193 resolved markets, excluding prices below 2% or above 98%.

Disclaimer. ProvenAlpha reports measurements of publicly available prediction-market data. Nothing on this page is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any asset or contract. Past pricing accuracy does not predict future accuracy. Prediction markets and crypto both carry substantial risk of total loss. Do your own research.

Worth a look

What moved most, where a move can still mean something.

Ranked by the size of the move, weighted by how loosely that horizon has historically been priced.

Worth a look · 01

ETH · 4 hours

Ethereum is bid up 33.5 points on the 4 hours window, to 84.5%. On $1,071 of volume, that is real conviction.

Worth a look · 02

XRP · 4 hours

XRP is bid up 29.0 points on the 4 hours window, to 79.0%. On $260 of volume, that is real conviction.

Worth a look · 03

SOL · 4 hours

Solana is bid up 32.5 points on the 4 hours window, to 83.5%. On thin volume of $199, treat this as a tell rather than a reading.

How we score it

How much each horizon has been worth trusting.

The average gap between what the crowd priced and what actually happened, measured on 22,193 resolved markets. Lower is tighter.

15 minutes

0.67 pts

Near-flawless. When it says 70%, it happens ~70% of the time. Take the price at face value — there is no edge here.

1 hour

1.99 pts

Still good, noticeably looser. Extreme readings are usually right, but the middle of the range drifts.

4 hours

4.50 pts

The loosest market we track, on only 476 samples. If mispricing exists anywhere on this board, it is most likely here.

Daily excluded

No data

Daily markets have not settled recently, so we show nothing rather than a stale price with no track record behind it.

Context

How the last 24 hours actually closed.

Share of settled windows that closed up, per asset, over the last day. Read it against the board: agreement means the crowd is extending a trend, disagreement means it is calling a turn.

Asset	Closed up	Windows	Read
BTCBitcoin	50.8%	124	balanced
ETHEthereum	53.2%	124	strongest
SOLSolana	50.0%	124	balanced
XRPXRP	51.6%	124	balanced
BNBBNB	50.0%	124	balanced

One row per asset with settled windows in the period; an asset with nothing settled is left out rather than shown at 50%.

Go deeper

Put the odds next to the structure.

The tools and guides that turn a price into a plan.

ProvenAlpha

What public crypto analysts are calling today — bias, consensus and the levels they watch.

Open the tool →

Opportunity Screener

Six-timeframe alignment and situation scores for every pair — the structure behind the odds.

Open the tool →

ZoneHunter Live

Order blocks and fair value gaps on a live chart, with a trade plan per zone.

Open the tool →

FAQ

Everything you need to know before you read the board.

What is this page?

A live board of prediction-market odds on the five crypto majors, with a track record attached. For each horizon we show the current probability that the asset closes the window up, how far that price has moved since the window opened, and how accurately that horizon has priced reality across thousands of markets that have already settled.

Where do the odds come from?

Polymarket's up-or-down series for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and BNB. They are the market's prices, not ours — real money taking real positions. We poll them, keep the history, and score it.

What does a probability actually mean here?

It is the price traders are paying for the asset to close the current window above where it opened, read as a percentage. 62% means the market is paying 62 cents for a dollar that only pays out if the window closes up. It is a crowd's opinion with money behind it, not a forecast we endorse.

How do you score which horizon to trust?

For every settled market we compare the price the crowd paid with what actually happened, and take the sample-weighted mean absolute gap per horizon. A low score means the crowd's prices have matched outcomes closely; a high one means that horizon has been loose. Prices below 2% or above 98% are excluded — they are nearly settled already and would flatter the score.

Why does the loosest horizon matter most?

Because a horizon priced almost perfectly leaves nothing to find. Where the crowd has historically been furthest from the outcome is where a striking price is most likely to be a genuine mispricing rather than the market simply being right.

What does the "thin" tag mean?

That the market has traded under a few hundred dollars in the window. A lopsided price on almost no volume tells you what a handful of people think, not what a market believes. We tag it rather than hide it, so you can weigh it yourself.

What makes a market "worth a look"?

A move of at least ten points since the window opened, on a horizon loose enough that the move could plausibly be a mispricing, ranked with a preference for markets that have real volume behind them. It is a shortlist of what changed, not a recommendation to trade it.

Why is there no daily horizon?

Daily markets have not been settling, so we have nothing recent to score them against. Showing a stale price with no track record behind it would be worse than showing nothing, so the column stays out.

What is the 24-hour section for?

It is the reality check on the board. It counts how many windows per asset actually closed up over the last day. When the realised rate and the live board agree, the crowd is extending a trend that is already running; when they disagree, the crowd is calling a turn.

Is a lopsided price a trade?

No. The board tells you how the crowd is positioned and how much that crowd has historically been worth listening to on that horizon. Read it next to structure — the timeframe alignment on the Opportunity Screener and the zones on ZoneHunter Live — before you do anything with it.

How does this relate to ProvenAlpha?

ProvenAlpha is the sibling page: what public crypto analysts are calling today. This page is what people with money at stake are pricing right now. Reading the two against each other — talk against money — is the point of running both.

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